This is only the beginning
The biggest change in selling in recent decades has been the shift in power from sellers to buyers, as noted in The Challenger Sale
But if sellers have lost the power of information asymmetry, they have at least retained the power of production asymmetry. Because their companies have controlled the means of production, they could dictate what is built, how much, and when it will be delivered. A buyer who needs a mass-manufactured product still has to talk to the relatively few providers, make choices among a fairly limited range of options, and negotiate appropriate pricing, volume and delivery terms.
But what happens when the balance of manufacturing power also shifts, when buyers themselves can either make things for themselves or have much more control over the production process?
3D printing offers that promise to buyers with its corollary threat to sellers. In essence, it comprises the hardware and software that allows one to manufacture objects using a printer. Instead of depositing a 2 dimensional layer of ink on a page, these printers deposit successive layers of plastic resin or powdered metal to build up complex 3D objects. As the technology improves, 3D printing is becoming capable of printing larger, more complex, and more variegated objects. There is little theoretical limit to what they can produce, and—thanks to Moore’s Law– they are getting cheaper and better at an astonishing pace, with devices ranging from desktop versions to full-scale factory versions. It’s true that most of what 3D printers can turn out now includes cheap-looking toys or jewelry, but GE Aviation is also using it to produce jet engine parts out of titanium, others are fabricating individualized medical devices, and still others are printing human-scale structures.
The bottom line is that the means of production are being democratized and spreading to many more hands. If the internet set information free, 3D printing will set the means of production free to a certain point. Because buyers are going to gain much more of the means of production, they’ll be able to design their own products, build only as many as they need exactly when they need, and make changes in designs as often as they want.
What will this mean to salespeople? One of the advantages of making predictions about things several years out is that, if you’re right, you can look really smart; if you’re wrong, no one will remember. That’s a good thing, because the history of prognostication is filled with vastly more misses than hits. But here goes:
Less power for most salespeople. On a macro level, the balance of power will probably shift even further towards buyers, because they will have greater options of manufacturing for themselves rather than outsourcing the manufacture. Even if they still choose to outsource, there will be many more providers to choose from.
More power for some. On an individual level, I believe it will give some salespeople more power, because they will have much more flexibility to design a unique and perfect solution for clients. Those who take the time to deeply understand the customer’s situation, problems and opportunities will be able to design and deliver exactly what the customer needs, and become more valuable to customers as a result.
Smaller deals. Economies of scale will lose their iron grip on pricing and volume, so customers won’t need to make big purchases to lock in lower costs. Customers will become less loyal because they will have lower switching costs.
Need for speed. Right now, 3D technology allows for much more rapid prototyping, which makes it faster, easier, and safer to make tweaks and design changes. Products will evolve faster and sales professionals will have to move faster just to stay up with the state of the art. They will also have to find ways to get involved in customers’ and prospects’ decision cycles earlier, because once they find out about opportunities, it may be too late.
More free agents. In fact, barriers to entry may be lowered so much that just about any individual with a good idea will be able to conceive, design, and deliver physical products, using manufacturing-as-a-service. Most won’t be able to afford their own printers, of course, but it will be easy to find contract manufacturers to do it for them. Today, big manufacturing is akin to the Field of Dreams: “If you build it, they will come.” Tomorrow, it will be the Dream of fields: “If they come, you can build it.”
To be relevant, salespeople will still have to add value, but what value do you add when the other side holds all the cards? What cards will be left?
One thing is sure. Human ingenuity knows no bounds, especially that of salespeople whose livelihood depends on rapidly adapting to change. Smart sellers will always find a way to add value and make money, no matter what the conditions are—but it never hurts to think ahead. According to Gartner’s Hype Cycle[1], 3D printing is now at the peak of inflated expectations, which will soon be followed by a trough of disillusionment. Assuming Gartner is right, though, the key point is that the technology will reach the plateau of productivity and have mainstream effects is five to ten years. This may be too long for salespeople focusing on this quarter’s quota attainment, but it is certainly short enough for forward-thinking sales and marketing management to start paying attention.
The premise of Daniel Pink’s new book, To Sell Is Human
We need a reminder that there’s a huge difference between selling as a part of what you do on a regular basis, and selling as a profession. When your ability to put food on the table depends on your performance of a specific skill, it requires a huge qualitative difference in how you approach that skill.
To illustrate my point, let’s look at an analogy. In knowledge work, everyone also writes. It may only be emails, or it may be longer and more elaborate reports, but the ability to write definitely makes a difference in your career progression. But writing as part of your job does not make you a writer—certainly not one who could be mentioned in the same sentence as a Daniel Pink.
It’s like the difference between a churchgoer and the pastor, or the difference between coaching your kid’s T-ball team and being a professional coach. To use a cliché, it’s like the difference between the chicken and the pig when it comes to ham and eggs. One is involved and the other is committed.
Professional salespeople are committed because they get measured and paid primarily for their success at selling—they can get fired for not accomplishing their primary task. If an engineer has trouble selling his or her ideas, their career progression might be slowed, but they won’t get fired. If a health care worker is ineffective at selling a treatment plan to a patient (one of Pink’s favorite examples), the patient suffers the consequences. If a salesperson is unable to sell something the customer needs, the customer may suffer, but the salesperson is going to feel the immediate consequences.
Professionals have to produce. When you make a living by doing something, you have to do it even when you don’t feel like it, like a shark that has to keep swimming. That’s why professional salespeople have to sell even when they don’t want to. They also know the drudgery of “dialing for dollars”, and of having to be on at all times, in a way that amateurs don’t. In the same vein, professional writers know that they have to write even when they don’t feel like it. Pink, for example, holds himself to a daily word count, because no one pays you for words you don’t write.
Because of this, the bar for sales performance is much higher, and the commitment to the craft and skill is correspondingly in a different league entirely.
Why does this matter? Because if selling is to be taken seriously as a profession, it’s critical to dispel the myth that anyone with no training or skill can be a successful salesperson, and the related idea that sales is just a refuge for those who couldn’t handle the more difficult subjects in college. Let’s keep in mind that a professional salesperson (especially in the B2B arena) has to become proficient in a wide range of general disciplines, including complex technologies embedded in their product, general business and industry acumen, psychology, persuasive expression (including writing—although it doesn’t make them writers). Added to those general disciplines are skills directly related to sales, such as questions, dealing with objections, sales strategies and processes, connecting features to benefits, and territory management, to name just a few. They have to thoroughly learn these skills (and keep learning, because things are changing so fast), because they are committed.
I really like To Sell Is Human, partially because it does a great job in dispelling harmful sales myths, especially the one that selling is somehow slimy or distasteful. But I am afraid that taking too literally his idea that everyone is in sales risks propagating another harmful myth.
